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Gold was in for another rout as 2013 drew to a close. The yellow metal is just not that attractive as the world economy appears ready to get back into gear, and the Federal Reserve tones down its bond-buying program. The price of the metal has fallen by about 0.8 percent on today’s market. As the market gets ready for the economic realities of 2014, they have to face facts. Gold has been touted as a great investment for a period of massive inflation, but that inflation has never arrived.

The biggest advocates of gold as an investment will stick to the story, and they may be right. The last five years have clearly shown that the world’s central banks are not able to predict the consequences of their actions. There is not sign of any inflation just yet, but it may be on the way in the next year.

Gold Is Security

Gold became popular over the last few years as a relative safe haven. The metal is still seen as one of the only assets that is able to hold its value through periods of inflation and periods of economic instability. This year has shown that the gold is not a safe haven by definition. The price of futures to be delivered in February has dropped by close to 30 percent through the year so far. Gold is not a secure asset.

2013 on the market has been defined by the actions of the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s quantitative easing policy has been the single most important factor in the massive expansion of value on the stock market. Now that investors are expecting 2014 to be a relatively calm period of economic growth, gold has lost its luster.

For hedge fund managers like John Paulson, that likely spells disaster for end of year returns. Gold miners and others in the industry will also suffer from the change in the market. Investors will need to change the way they see the market, but there may be value still hiding in gold.

Gold For Growth

Gold is not just an asset class, it’s a good that’s demanded by a large swathe of the world’s population. As China and India continue to grow, their populations are likely to demand more gold, though India’s demand has seen reductions in recent weeks on the back of tax changes.

Investors may see now as a good time to buy into gold. The metal has seen a large drop in price, and that is the right time to take a second look at any investment. Gold may be right for some investors heading into 2014, though more are likely to stay away on the back of recovery rumors.

Gold is an investment that’s worth another look, but there’s no guarantee that it’s in for an increase in the coming months. If a hint of inflation appears the price of gold is likely to jump once again. 2014 will surprise investors, and gold may benefit. It’s certain that the metal shouldn’t be written off just yet.

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Gold has become the most hated commodity lately. What happened to the days when everyone had to own the precious metal? After all, more and more central banks around the world are printing money faster than ever. The Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank) is still creating $85 billion a month out of thin air. Other central banks in England, Japan, Asia, and Europe continue to do the same thing. So why has gold struggled so much?

It seems that gold is now trading inversely to the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs the Japanese Yen). Today, the USD/JPY is falling sharply and this is causing gold futures to rally. Currently, the USD/JPY chart remains in an up-trend on the daily chart. Up-trending markets are very tough to fight since that is where the momentum is. Should the USD/JPY chart start to fall gold should start to trade higher. Traders and investors might need to take a wait and see approach, but I would say that you shouldn’t get too bearish on gold at this stage of the game. Gold could be setting up to make a sharp move higher very soon if that up-trend in the USD/JPY chart starts to reverse.

Disclosure: This article was written by Nicholas Santiago. Nicholas Santiago is a co-founder of In The Money Stocks. Nicholas Santiago and In The Money Stocks represent that Nicholas Santiago does own physical gold and silver at the time the article was submitted.

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Almost every trading day someone asks me if they should buy gold. Personally, I own physical gold and silver bullion since 2004, but if you are trading gold ETFs, you may want to wait before jumping on board at this time. As you all know, gold topped out in September 2011 at $1923.70 an ounce. Ironically, that same week that gold topped out it was upgraded by J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) to $2500.00 an ounce. Either J.P. Morgan Chase is just terrible at spotting tops or it was looking to sell to the amateurs that always buy the peak. My suspicion is the latter as most large firms have an agenda behind their upgrades and downgrades when equities are at extreme highs and lows. Just think about it, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded oil to $250.00 a barrel when it was trading at $145.00 a barrel in July 2008. As you probably know, oil peaked at $147.00 a barrel a week after that upgrade. Again, the amateurs that followed that upgrade were just decimated when oil was bought at that high. Oil dropped to $30.00 over the next year. Now gold has turned into one of the most hated commodities out there by Wall Street. Currently, gold is coming under pressure due to potential tightening of the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion QE-3 program. Now let us be clear, the Federal Reserve has not begun to tapper yet, it is only floating rumors of a tapering. This can be seen by the recent rise in yields in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note yield. So enough with that, here are three signs to look for that will tell us we should buy gold ETF’s again:

1. If the recent low in gold futures (GC) from June 28, 2013 is briefly broken to the downside and then reverses back to the upside on volume. If this occurs it will signal institutional sponsorship and it will most likely be a solid low in place. This could also lead to a W-bottom pattern on the larger time frame which often signals huge upside potential.

2. Next, watch for a major downgrade from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co or another major firm. Remember, when these giant firms downgrade stocks at lows it is often a sign that they now want to own that equity. Just look ay their past track records of upgrading and downgrading stocks at extreme highs and lows.

3. Gold is a currency, this is why central banks around the world own it, and this includes the Federal Reserve. So when you start to notice that asset prices are falling despite the easy money policies (money printing) by the central banks around the globe it is a good time to get on board and own some gold. After all, gold cannot be printed out of thin air or by a click of a keyboard like the fiat monetary system that we have today. Why do you think Bitcoin is becoming so popular right now? Bitcoin only has a certain amount available for use unlike fiat currency which can be printed infinitely.

Disclosure: This article is written by Nicolas Santiago. Nicholas Santiago is a co-founder of In The Money Stocks. Nicholas Santiago and In The Money Stocks represent that Nicolas Santiago does own physical gold and silver at the time the article was submitted.

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Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NVGS) is a company that owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers and is backed by billionaire investor Wilbur Ross. The company launched its IPO this morning and the stock has become a popular trade, with share prices rising by as much as 11 percent to $21.12 per share. This is $1.12 higher than its IPO price of $19.00 per share.

The company initially planned to offer 11.3 million shares in the $17-$19 range. However, the actual IPO figures were 12 million shares priced at the top end of the projected price range. The shares come from both Navigator itself and some of its private investors. Navigator is offering approximately 9 million of the shares, while other stockholders make up the remaining 3 million shares. Navigator will not be receiving any of the proceeds of shares sold by private stockholders.

Those stockholders involved with selling the shares are also allowing the underwriters a 30 day option to purchase an additional 18 million shares.

The company was able to raise $228 million in investor backing from the IPO, leaving a net profit of approximately $156.4 million. This money will be used to fund about $72.7 million in payments due for purchase agreements involving new vessels to be delivered in 2015. The rest of the proceeds will be used in general corporate expenses.

With the largest fleet of handysize tankers in the world, Navigator Holdings has a corner on the market in shipping liquefied gas across the sea. These tankers are capable of transporting liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemical gasses, and ammonia among other type of liquefied gas. Each ship has a deadweight of 50,000 tons, the vessels are in direct competition with companies like Stealth Gas Inc. and Exmar NV which is based in Belgium.

Wilbur Ross acquired a majority holding in Navigator when Lehman Bros. Inc. filed bankruptcy. Lehman Bros. was the former owner of the company, and Ross saw an opportunity to snap up a potential gold mine.

The stock offering is expected to close on Tuesday, however, the 30 day option will remain open from the private investors to the underwriters to purchase additional shares.

Disclosure: Author represents that he has no position in any stocks mentioned in this article at the time this article was submitted.

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The issue of US debt was certainly brought to the foreground during the government shutdown. As we reported, the federal debacle, which was a result of the folks at Capitol Hill failing to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling as well as the federal budget, greatly impacted the financial markets. The fact that the politicians finally came to some sort of solution (although temporary) allowed investors a sigh of relief.

However, for contrarian investors and specialists in the gold sector, US debt spells doom for the US dollar.

Gold Insiders Believe The Physical Asset Will Rise On A Falling Dollar

Egon von Greyez, a renowned name in the gold sector, believes that gold prices will rise in a parabolic fashion on the back of a fast declining dollar. Greyez, who is the founder and managing partner of Swiss-based Matterhorn Asset Management, also known as GoldSwitzerland, points at US debt saying that although it took 200 years for debt rise to $8 trillion in 2006, it has now risen to $17 billion over the past seven years. Evidently, Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing approach is not popular with gold insiders.

Greyez points out that Europe, Japan, and China are facing their own problems and that none of them will be able to bail out the US when it is crushed the under the weight of its own debt. Admittedly, the credit bubble in China is a concern, as is Japan’s debt and Europe’s unconvincing social structure.

However, the big problem remains in whether or not to believe these gold insiders. Not only do they have a vested interest, considering they buy, sell, and transfer precious metals, but there are also other strong reasons why the US dollar will not fall, and more importantly gold prices won’t shoot up extraordinarily.

Complexity Of Global Economic System Acts As Insurance

As economic integration and bilateral trade between countries steps up, the complexity of the global economic system also increases. This has brought about non-linear relations where one wrong move can bring down economic goliaths like a set of dominos. Does anyone want this?

The recent turmoil in the Arab world started as a simple unemployment protest in Tunisia. This later developed into protests against unequal distribution of wealth, poor governance, and lack of freedom, which spilled over and affected countries such as Egypt and Syria. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates avoided this gloomy fate by using high oil prices to sustain popular government spending programs for social welfare. If the dollar plunges, oil prices could dip as low as $10 per barrel, down from the typical $100 plus. This is certainly not something that the stable part of the Arab world would want. Not to mention, China, among many other economies is heavily invested in the US.

Because of the intricate nature of the world economy, a drastic fall in the US dollar cannot happen; and if it does, then call it the financial apocalypse. Gold prices will rise. Not because of a battered dollar, but because of the purely normal need to constantly hedge against risks.

Disclosure: Author represents that he has no position in any stocks mentioned in this article at the time this article was submitted.

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The Permian Basin in Texas is one of the richest oil fields in North America. It has been drilled since the 1920s, but recently the actual potential of the area has become known. The shale rock of the basin holds up to an estimated $5 trillion worth of crude oil.

However, that number could become completely moot if the forecast laid out by analysts proves to be true. Marshall Adkins of Raymond James & Associates says that crude could be headed for as low as $70 per barrel by next year. If this happens, then many of the smaller outfits in the basin will go broke and face takeovers from larger forces.

Bryan Sheffield is a third generation oil man in the basin. As a wildcatter who has experienced success in the industry, even he says he will close down half of his drilling rigs and begin headhunting smaller companies if the price drops to the $80 per barrel range. This type of price drop would drastically slow drilling in the Permian Basin, which is by far the richest shale formation in the United States.

Permian Wells Will Lose Money If Price Drops

Because of the shale rock layers and varied geological makeup of the Permian Basin, some wells cost more than others to drill and harvest the oil from. Because of this, many of the wells in the basin would be shut down if the price drops. According to Bloomberg, some wells may even become money losers in the event of an oil price bust.

Current Conditions Are Profitable

For now it appears that drillers in the Permian are safe from the threat of an immediate bust. While that threat may loom on the horizon, for now the policy is “Drill! Drill! Drill!” With wildcatters finding new sites daily the profits keep piling up. Only time will tell for sure if the prices really will bottom out, and if they do, you can bet there will be many smaller companies that get swallowed up in the aftermath. If they don’t then the big companies will keep raking in record profits while we pay for it at the pump.

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Flourishing oil and gas producers North America and Russia are investing billions of dollars on pipelines and port facilities in order to supply energy to Asia, intent on capturing a larger share of the world’s fastest growing fuel market from Middle East suppliers.

For the better part of the past decade, China has driven global oil demand growth, surpassing the United States as the world’s top net oil importer in the month of September. Despite a rise in North American shale output and a weak economy in the West, Asia’s surge in consumption has kept prices supported.

The change in growth away from the West has forced producers such as Canada to look further from home to find a market. In addition, Russia, its Central Asian neighbors and other exporters are lining up to sell their oil and gas to Beijing.

“The center of gravity shifting east is becoming a reality,” Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency said at the World Energy Congress in South Korea.

They (China) would like to get oil from everywhere. Whether it’s by ship or, let’s not forget about Russia, by pipeline.”

While Asia’s market thrives, the U.S., which has been the world’s biggest market for oil and gas for decades, could slash oil imports by nearly 50 percent by the end of 2020 due to the shale oil and gas boom improving energy efficiency, the IEA said.

North America has already bumped Australia out of the top spot for new Asian investment in gas development, while several pipeline projects are in the works in Canada to send landlocked crude to Asia.

Russia, the world’s largest gas producer, also has plans to open up natural gas exports as early as next year to meet growing demand from Asia-Pacific markets. In June of this year, Russian producer Rosneft signed one of the biggest deals in the history of the global oil industry-a $270 billion pact to supply 300,000 bpd, of oil to China for 25 years.

In the Middle East, producers are competing hard with other suppliers for the Asian market. Quickly emerging as a key competitor to Saudi Arabia, Iraq has said China is looking to increase purchases of its crude by more than two-thirds in 2014.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which increased its annual capital budget to $40 billion in the last 10 years, will export more of a better quality of light crude by 2017.

The heat is on for producers who can provide steady, large volumes of oil to China as it could surpass the United States as the world’s largest crude importer by 2017.

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For the second month in a row, the state’s Department of Mineral Resources announced Tuesday that North Dakota produced an average of 911,242 barrels of oil a day in August, a jump from the record of an average 875,736 barrels a day in July.

Two years ago, North Dakota pumped on average a little over 446,000 barrels a day.

Breaking the previous record of 972,058 cubic feet of natural gas in July, the state produced an average of 1 million cubic feet a day in the month of August. North Dakota also hit a record of producing wells: 9,452 wells in August, up from 9,334 in July.

Most production in the state came from the Bakken and Three Forks Shale formations. Techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have released oil and gas trapped in the shale rock.

North Dakota has garnered some attention recently for other, more unscrupulous reasons: the state is dealing with the aftermath of an oil spill from a pipeline rupture.

A farmer near Tioga went out to harvest wheat in late September and found a mini oil gusher from a Tesoro Logistics LP pipeline. Corrosion is suspected to have played a part in the line break. More than 20,000 barrels of oil are thought to have contaminated the field, four times as much oil as flooded an Arkansas subdivision from an Exxon Mobil Corp. pipeline break in March.

Although the public was notified about the spill on last week, state authorities have announced that they followed all protocol in notifying the public of the spill, but that it was not a threat to public health as it was contained to the remote field, and did not threaten or reach water sources.

In other energy news, the U.S. may be on track to surpass Russia as the world’s largest oil and natural gas producer this year, but the country still ranks fifth out of 13 in terms of overall energy security, a report released Monday states.

According to the report by Roubini Global Economics and the group Securing America’s Future Energy, “Heavy” dependency on oil is the reason for the current ranking. While the ongoing oil boom and the improvement of vehicle fuel efficiency are playing a role in boosting energy security, it simply isn’t enough. Its heavy dependency on oil leaves the U.S. economy vulnerable to high and volatile oil prices.

U.S. and Russian energy production over the past couple of years have been nearly equivalent. The U.S. will end 2013 as the world’s largest producer of petroleum and natural gas, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia, the Energy Information Administration said in early October. The EIA estimates combined U.S. petroleum and gas production will reach nearly 25 million barrels of oil a day, out producing Russia by 5 quadrillion Btu.

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Gold is bouncing back, but it remains to be seen how high it will go. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) is up 4.84 percent in the past month. Gold had dropped over 29 percent from the first of the year, reaching a 52-week low of $114.68 on June 28th. The yellow metal has rallied back over 17 percent from this low. The question is whether the rally will continue. Not surprisingly, analysts are divided on that point.

Morgan Stanley analysts believe the rally is short lived. They contend the gold market has already priced in an announcement that the Fed will reduce its monthly bond purchased at its next meeting. The FOMC is scheduled to meet on September 18th and 19th. The Morgan Stanley analysts point to a couple of fundamental factors which fueled the rebound. They site an exhaustion in ETF sell offs and stronger physical demand in China and India. They further believe the current rally will be limited by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. Technically, the analysts stated the price would have trouble breaking through the 100 day SMA.

JP Morgan analysts are taking the opposite side of that prediction, indicating gold will continue to rise. The bank released a note a couple of weeks ago saying the market had shrugged off the news that Paulson & Co. reduced its gold exposure by half. The most recent 13F filing from John Paulson’s firm states it sold off 11 million shares of GLD, leaving a position of 10.23 million shares with a market value of $1.22 billion. JP Morgan analysts pointed to a strong positive seasonality trend in the metal which coincides with the Denver gold conference, predicting a strong run-up to the show. The Denver Gold Forum is scheduled for September 22nd to 25th. They advised that short term investors should go long gold with a 4 to 5 week time horizon. They further pointed to strong physical demand in India and China as bullish, similar to the Morgan Stanley analysts.

Paulson was not the only hedge fund manager leaving the gold party. Soros Fund Management sold off its last 530k shares in GLD according to the firm’s most recent 13F filing. A year ago, Soros had a position of 884k shares with a market value of $137 million. Soros became publicly bearish on gold after the Cyprus banking meltdown, indicating the metal was no longer a holder of value in the face of financial deterioration. Overall, the GLD has had substantial outflows of funds year to date.

The GLD chart shows the price moving in a narrow upward channel since August 6th. The price broke through the 100-day SMA on strong volume on August 23rd, invalidating at least a portion of the Morgan Stanley prediction. If the lower level of the channel is broken, the price could be headed down to at least $130. Volume has generally been moderate since the bottom at the end of June. GLD is trading with a beta of -2.16, showing a strong inverse relationship with the overall market.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) has had a more substantial rebound, up over 10 percent in the past month. GDX has traded more volatile than GLD with a beta of -4.16, but has rallied over 36 percent since a 52-week low of $22.21 on June 28th. Similar to GLD, Soros Fund Management exited its position in GDX by selling off 2.66 million shares, as shown by its second quarter 13F filing.

The analysts are in disagreement on where gold is going, pointing to differing fundamental and technical factors that will influence future price action. From the GLD chart, it looks like the recent strong rally could be broken at any time. Further, the volume on the rally has not been that high, which suggests it could turn around at the drop of a hat. Likely, larger macro-economic factors will influence where GLD heads from here.

Disclosure: The author has no position in any of the companies mentioned, and does not intend to initiate a position in the next 72 hours.

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Rick Harrison, co-owner of the “pawn star from the History Channel’s “Pawn Stars” is cashing in on his own gold. Harrison spoke with CNBC on Friday about his decision, claiming the price of gold has seen a steady decline and he came up with a personal solution, for now.

Harrison is considering selling his own gold, taking a loss on his holdings to get a tax benefit, and buying it back next month. “I think a lot of people should consider doing that — you’ll save a little money on your capital gains,” he said.

Prices of gold plummeted last Thursday to a three-year low. Gold has lost 23 percent this year and is on pace for its biggest annual drop since 1981, reports Money Morning. The drop comes after comments during a FOMC meeting from Ben Nernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, that “the current $85 billion worth of monthly bond purchases could slow near the end of this year.”

Pawn Star’s ‘Crazy World’ of Gold and Silver from CNBC.

“I retail a lot of gold and silver and I’m having a real difficult time right now getting physical metal. “It’s the crazy world about gold and silver: Sometimes the paper market is going down but you can’t find actual physical items.”

He says he has a hard time finding it because there’s a shortage of physical metal. He still pays around the same for gold because he doesn’t think the value will go much lower. Despite the price of gold dropping over the past few weeks, Harrison still sees a demand for it.

“I think gold is still a good thing to have around,” he said. “It’s an insurance policy—hopefully you don’t need to cash it in right away. It’s a long-term investment. Governments have a tendency to screw up currencies.”

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